Stony Brook

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	208.0
Current RPI:	208
Expected SOS:	146
Current SOS:	146
Current Record:	12-19
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-5
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC RPI:	219
Expected OOC SOS:	98

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	208.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Stony Brook.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Maryland (74.0)	B10	N	61-76	L	0%
11-14	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	72-64	L	0%
11-17	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	87-76	L	0%
11-19	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	A	93-71	L	0%
11-22	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	H	77-64	W	100%
11-26	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	76-85	L	0%
12-2	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	85-83	W	100%
12-4	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	75-71	L	0%
12-7	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	A	66-76	W	100%
12-12	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	81-84	L	0%
12-17	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	62-60	L	0%
12-22	Rutgers (203.0)	B10	A	73-75	W	100%
12-30	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	H	68-74	L	0%
1-3	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	71-70	W	100%
1-6	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	61-63	W	100%
1-10	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	78-65	L	0%
1-13	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	73-62	L	0%
1-18	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	77-66	W	100%
1-21	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	53-51	L	0%
1-24	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	82-79	L	0%
1-27	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	50-57	L	0%
1-31	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	63-67	L	0%
2-3	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	64-73	L	0%
2-8	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	81-68	W	100%
2-11	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	61-64	W	100%
2-15	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	69-57	L	0%
2-18	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	72-63	W	100%
2-21	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	57-64	W	100%
2-24	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	60-69	L	0%
3-3	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	60-69	W	100%
3-6	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	70-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Stony Brook's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Stony Brook's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Stony Brook.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Stony Brook	AE	26.45	26.45	40.82	40.82	-4.86	-4.86
Vermont	AE	5.77	5.77	76.67	76.67	3.08	3.08
Albany	AE	5.67	5.67	67.86	67.86	2.02	2.02
UMBC	AE	4.28	4.28	68.97	68.97	1.62	1.62
Hartford	AE	4.25	4.25	58.62	58.62	0.73	0.73
Maine	AE	4.17	4.17	14.29	14.29	-2.98	-2.98
UMass Lowell	AE	4.17	4.17	37.04	37.04	-1.08	-1.08
New Hampshire	AE	4.12	4.12	25.93	25.93	-1.98	-1.98
Binghamton	AE	4.09	4.09	29.63	29.63	-1.67	-1.67
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	1.92	1.92	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	1.83	1.83	28.00	28.00	-0.81	-0.81
Brown	Ivy	1.78	1.78	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
Maryland	B10	1.76	1.76	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Rutgers	B10	1.74	1.74	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
Michigan St.	B10	1.74	1.74	87.50	87.50	1.30	1.30
Bucknell	Pat	1.74	1.74	72.73	72.73	0.79	0.79
Connecticut	Amer	1.67	1.67	41.94	41.94	-0.27	-0.27
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.66	1.66	59.26	59.26	0.31	0.31
Providence	BE	1.64	1.64	60.61	60.61	0.35	0.35
Ball St.	MAC	1.64	1.64	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Hofstra	CAA	1.61	1.61	58.62	58.62	0.28	0.28
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	41.38	41.38	-0.28	-0.28
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.38	0.38	23.08	23.08	-0.21	-0.21
Bryant	NEC	0.35	0.35	9.68	9.68	-0.28	-0.28
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.35	0.35	30.00	30.00	-0.14	-0.14
Boston University	Pat	0.34	0.34	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.32	0.32	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.31	0.31	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.28	0.28	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.24	0.24	36.36	36.36	-0.07	-0.07
Wagner	NEC	0.24	0.24	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
Cornell	Ivy	0.24	0.24	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.21	0.21	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.21	0.21	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Harvard	Ivy	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.19	0.19	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.18	0.18	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Holy Cross	Pat	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.16	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.15	0.15	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Monmouth	MAAC	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.15	82.35	82.35	0.10	0.10
NJIT	ASun	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	6.67	6.67	-0.12	-0.12
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.13	0.13	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Memphis	Amer	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Penn	Ivy	0.12	0.12	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01